As goes Ukraine…

Another week of massive changes on the world scene, including the extraordinary and almost unthinkable sight of the United States voting with North Korea, Belarus and Russia in the United Nations...even China abstained. And also apparently a deal between the United States and Ukraine for the delivery to the US of Ukrainian rare earths, in return for continued US support in the war with Russia. Which will presumably include ongoing Ukrainian access to Starlink and other US intelligence that will allow it to sustain the fight against Russia.

And also also, it would appear that Europe is coming to terms with the end of America’s security support for Western Europe, and the indications are that Germany, France and the United Kingdom are coming together to create a military strategic alliance with the very clear goal of facing down Russia. For the Western European countries to build up their military capabilities to match that of the United States in Europe will take several years, but the establishment of the intention is already a huge step and one that has massive implications. It means that Europe stands a chance of playing a significant role in the future.

The assumption is also that European sanctions against Russia will become even more robust and complete and Western European dependence on Russian fossil fuels appears to be basically over, so it comes down to how long the Russian war machine can keep operating.

All this has huge significance for China. Those in Command have made it crystal clear time and again that they want to see Russia emerge from the war in good shape and a more united Europe would present certain inconveniences. If the Ukraine is able to be a stable and sizable source of the rare earths the US needs then that has a big impact on China’s geopolitical leverage, given the central role China plays in global rare earths supplies and processing. And then there is the island. If, in this new transactional Trumpian era, Ukraine is sacrificed to meet the hard power requirements of the US, then that maybe creates a formula that could be reused in East Asia—a deal with the island offered as a chip in return for something else. But then again, if Ukraine finds a way to survive, playing off the various elements successfully, then that also creates a scenario for the island to emulate.

It’s all hard to say, but our feeling is that while any effort by Those in Command to complete the sacred task of reunifying the motherland is fraught with risk, the best window of opportunity they are ever likely to have is probably the next two years.

Interesting times, boys and girls. Enjoy the weekend.