Choke points

The world is heading into ever more treacherous waters and the view that the Trumpian chaos and Iran war are overall of the benefit to Beijing is a strong theme out there at the moment. We would say, however, that it is too early to say. There are some truly horrendous potential outcomes to what we are seeing here, both in terms of the US domestic situation, and in terms of the world. The most dangerous period, as we have said before, is probably between now and the US mid-term elections in November. Is he going to pull the US out of NATO? What’s going to happen with Cuba? Will Greenland come back onto the agenda? Will we see boots on the ground in Iran? What will be the result of the Mr T and Mr X meeting scheduled for next month in Beijing? What will happen if the Trumpists decide they are going to lose the midterms? There is no doubt that all these distractions are at least theoretically to the benefit of Those in Command, but on the other hand, China depends on stable supply lines and stable export markets to keep its economy on an even keel.

The choke points are becoming clearer, and the Strait of Hormuz is just one of them. And then there is the AI steamroller which is going to have a huge impact on employment across a huge number of industries and professions real soon. Probably within months.

We wish to be optimistic but it’s getting harder. Have a great weekend anyway.